This looks challenging! With most cases resolved and recovered, Death Rates in South Korea, Germany and China (outside of Hubei) are in the 1.5% to 0.75% to 1.0% range relative to “Confirmed Cases," which implies a death rate well below 1.0% relative to a total number of people infected many (most?) of whom have not been tested and therefore “confirmed" (with or without symptoms). Relatively encouraging, not too terrifying.
On the other hand, looking at ITALY and SPAIN, they are already at 11% and 13% Death Rates relative to Total Confirmed Cases, and 75% of the Total Confirmed Cases have not yet resolved, and Italy has a huge number of Serious/Critical Cases remaining (27%). Very discouraging/terrifying numbers. It looks like they could end up with Death Rates as a percent of Total Confirmed Cases above 15%-20%. That is very frightening.
If New York and NYC’s death rates follow the patterns of Italy and Spain - or worse due to ultra-high density? - the next 2 to 4 weeks are going to be a horror movie in NYC.
And scary relative to rest of the country if this keeps cycling
(albeit the curve seems to be flattening pretty well in Whatcom County and Washington, especially if one excludes the Kirkland and Shuksan Nursing Homes as not typical of the general population).
ITALY
Total Confirmed Cases: 93,000
Total Deaths: 10,000 (11% Confirmed Case Death Rate-to-date)
Total Recovered: 12,000 (17% Confirmed Case Recovery Rate-to-date)
Active Cases: 70,000 (75% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
Serious/Critical: 25,000 (27% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
200 Deaths per Million of Population (1 per 5,000)
1500 Cases per Million Population (1 per 700)
SPAIN
Total Confirmed Cases: 73,000
Total Deaths: 6,000 (8% Confirmed Case Death Rate-to-date)
Total Recovered: 12,000 (13% Confirmed Case Recovery Rate-to-date)
Active Cases: 55,000 (75% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
Serious/Critical: 4,000 (6% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
150 Deaths per Million of Population (1 per 7,000)
1600 Cases per Million Population (1 per 600)
New York State
Total Confirmed Cases: 54,000
Total Deaths: 1,000 (2% Confirmed Case Death Rate-to-date)
Total Recovered: 4,000 (8% Confirmed Case Recovery Rate-to-date)
Active Cases: 50,000 (93% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
Serious/Critical: don’t know
Washington State
Total Confirmed Cases: 4,300
Total Deaths: 200 (5% Confirmed Case Death Rate-to-date)
Total Recovered: 300 (7% Confirmed Case Recovery Rate-to-date)
Active Cases: 4,000 (93% of Confirmed Cases-to-date)
Serious/Critical: don’t know See Less
